Will Peter Sagan reign supreme for the Green Jersey?
Sagan is looking for his 8th Green Jersey, however Wout Van Aert and Caleb Ewan could upset the apple cart
Winner of seven of the last eight Points Classifications, it would be easy to assume Peter Sagan was a certainty to win the Green Jersey again in 2020. Often carrying the misnomer of the "sprinter's jersey", any would-be winner needs to be able to do much more than win some bunch sprints. Sagan embodies the versatility required. He can place highly (and sometimes win) bunch sprints on flat stages. He is the best in the peloton when it comes to finishes on short, punchy climbs. He has the day-in-day-out endurance to contest and win most intermediate sprints. And, crucially, he is a good enough climber to be able to hoover up these intermediate sprint points on mountain stages, while his rivals toil out the back with the gruppetto. It seems that only some kind of accident or misdemeanour (he was chucked out of the race in 2017 for causing Mark Cavendish to crash) should prevent Sagan from making it eight Green Jerseys, then.
Except that this year many are predicting that new wunderkind, Wout Van Aert from Team Jumbo-Visma, has valid claims to challenge Sagan. Van Aert is certainly talented: his wins in Strade Bianche and Milan-San Remo in recent weeks provide more evidence of the versatility we have seen from him in the last couple of seasons. Like Sagan, he is a punchy climber, can mix it in bunch sprints, and he's a decent time trialist, too.
It's unlikely Van Aert will be given full freedom to contest the Green Jersey, though, as he has two viable GC contenders in his team who he will need to be on domestique duty for. And anyway, at this relative stage in their careers, Sagan is simply better. The sprinter's roster for this year's Tour is depleted due to the mountainous route and eams GC ambitions, meaning Sagan will place higher (and likely win) more flat stages than usual. Further, his Bora-Hansgrohe team are not taking Max Schachmann to the race after he was hit by a car at Il Lombardia, and they have doubts about Emmanuel Buchmann, too, meaning Sagan is likely to be the team's sole focus.
As for the likes of Sam Bennett and Caleb Ewan, they will be fighting out the few flat stages that end in bunch sprints, but they do not have the adaptability required for the Points Classification, and would only become viable contenders should misfortune befall Sagan.